Like most of the United States, I watched the (still ongoing) testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford before the Senate Judiciary Committee today. Granted that I was already pre-disposed to believe her testimony, but she came across as very believable. Her testimony was clearly painful for her, but she was absolutely certain that it was Kavanaugh and Judge. The details were believable including what she couldn’t remember.
Grassley was an ass in his opening statement and that didn’t play well. Hiring a sex-crimes prosecutor to do their questioning for them has saved the Senate Republicans from appearing like assholes in Democratic ads in campaigns. But it also has helped Dr. Blasey Ford’s testimony become even more credible. I’m an academic (in a very different field) which biases me toward her because I like the way she is careful and considerate in her answers. She corrects her earlier letter—“I shouldn’t use the term ‘bystander,’ here. ‘Bystander’ has a specific implication in terms of sexual asault for someone who witnesses the action and does nothing. P. J. was downstairs and I have no reason to believe he was aware of the attack upstairs.” She uses technical terms like “sequeli” (Latin plural and all) which makes her careful not to claim cause and effect where she cannot give scientific evidence of such.
So, her testimony is both emotionally believable and shows a scientific mind. Unlike Republican Senators and partisans, she doesn’t jump to conclusions before evidence is given. She invites further investigation where she cannot confirm or fill out details herself. She is telegenic and she undermines various narratives that Kavanaugh supporters have put forward: 1) Mistaken identity: Always implausible, Dr. Blasey Ford’s testimony makes clear that she would not mistake her attackers for anyone other than Kavanaugh and Judge. 2) Partisan liar: She is persuasive as an actual victim and, in her own words, “no one’s pawn.”
As of my writing Kavanaugh has not given his testimony. But we already know from his 4 days of Senate testimony and his Fixed Noise gig that Kavanaugh has a credibility problem. He’s been caught in several perjuries. His lies on Fixed Noise were so unbelievable that former friends spoke out against them, including some that were previous supporters. He’s either robotic or belligerent or evasive in answers, especially under cross-examination.
So, McConnell has a problem: Anyone that didn’t have a completely closed mind before today is probably convinced by Dr. Blasey Ford—at minimum, very unsure of Kavanaugh. McConnell is good at arm-twisting his caucus. He may be able to pull off the votes to confirm Kavanaugh anyway—but not without severe backlash at the polls for years to come. And, as of right now, I don’t think he has the votes. If he doesn’t, he’ll pull the nomination rather than risk a humiliating defeat on the Senate floor as with McCain’s “no” vote on the “skinny repeal” of the ACA.