Tiny edit: Because of the unknown nature of the pollster and ND’s reputation as notoriously difficult to poll, I have modified the title to make this story more of a question than a declaration of fact.
New polling, today, shows GOP candidate Kevin Cramer (R-ND) leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) by a full 10%, 51-41! Kavanaugh has 60-27% approval rating. The poll was taken after Christine Blasey Ford’s charges against Kavanaugh were made, but before the public, under oath, testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Conceivably, that testimony could move the bar, here, but 36 days out, it sure looks like Heitkamp is about to lose her seat, no matter how she votes on Kavanaugh’s confirmation.
This pollster isn’t well known and doesn’t have a 538.com rating. The ND race has been very sparsely polled overall. So, it’s possible that Heitkamp is doing much better than this suggests, but this is the public evidence we have and it isn’t good for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp.
That doesn’t, automatically, doom Democrats’ chances for retaking the Senate. We lead (by small amounts) in AZ, NV, and by a slightly larger % in TN, with TX as pure toss-up. We can lose 2 of our vulnerable incumbents as still take back the Senate as long as we pick-up at least 3—and I’m starting to get very bullish about AZ, NV, and TN. (I’m afraid to get too hopeful about TX for fear that Lucy will notice and pull that football from under me, again!)
This doesn’t mean we should write Heitkamp (or Menendez or anyone else) off. The Kavanaugh debacle may yet change the dynamics, especially if Heitkamp is smart enough to highlight the nasty remarks Cramer has made, viz., that as long as no penetration was made, women like Dr. Ford have nothing to complain about, and focus voters on CRAMER’S unacceptable views more than even Kavanaugh’s. That could be Cramer’s Todd Akin moment. But 10 points is a lot of ground to make up and, so far, Heitkamp doesn’t seem to have the savvy with ND voters that McCaskill has repeatedly shown in MO. I hope that changes and quickly. The clock is ticking Heidi.